Democratic Processes and Financial Markets Pricing Politics 1st Edition by William Bernhard, David Leblang ISBN 0521861225 9780521861229

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Product details:

ISBN 10: 0521861225

ISBN 13: 9780521861229 

Author: William Bernhard, David Leblang

The authors examine the conditions under which democratic events, including elections, cabinet formations, and government dissolutions, affect asset markets. Where these events have less predictable outcomes, market returns are depressed and volatility increases. In contrast, where market actors can forecast the result, returns do not exhibit any unusual behavior. Further, political expectations condition how markets respond to the political process. When news causes market actors to update their political beliefs, market actors reallocate their portfolios, and overall market behavior changes. To measure political information, Professors Bernhard and Leblang employ sophisticated models of the political process. They draw on a variety of models of market behavior, including the efficient markets hypothesis, capital asset pricing model, and arbitrage pricing theory, to trace the impact of political events on currency, stock, and bond markets. The analysis will appeal to academics, graduate students, and advanced undergraduates across political science, economics, and finance.

Table of contents:

Chapter 1: Introduction
Chapter 2: Democratic Processes and Political Risk: Evidence from Foreign Exchange Markets
Chapter 3: When Markets Party: Stocks, Bonds, and Cabinet Formations
Chapter 4: The Cross-National Financial Consequences of Political Predictability
Chapter 5: Cabinet Dissolutions and Interest Rate Behavior
Chapter 6: Bargaining and Bonds: The Process of Coalition Formation and the Market for Government Debt in Austria and New Zealand
Chapter 7: Time, Shares, and Florida: The 2000 Presidential Election and Stock Market Volatility
Chapter 8: Polls and Pounds: Exchange Rate Behavior and Public Opinion in Britain
Chapter 9: Conclusion: Political Predictability and Financial Market Behavior

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Tags: William Bernhard, David Leblang, Democratic Processes, Financial Markets, Pricing Politics