Elements of Forecasting 4th Edition by Francis X Diebold ISBN 0324359047 978-0324359046

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Product details:

ISBN 10: 0324359047

ISBN 13: 978-0324359046 

Author: Francis X. Diebold

Elements of Forecasting is a concise, modern survey of business and economics forecasting methods. Written by a leading expert on forecasting, it focuses on the core techniques of widest applicability and assumes only an elementary background in statistics. It is applications-oriented and illustrates all methods with detailed examples and case studies.
— Covers standard material (trend, seasonality, cycles) as well as more modern topics such as model selection, volatility models, unit roots and stochastic trends, vector autoregressions, and cointegration
— Highly applications-oriented, and numerous detailed real-world examples chosen from a variety of fields (including economics, economics, public policy, and engineering) to illustrate all methods.
— Integrates modern modeling and forecasting software, using Eviews output throughout to illustrate concepts. All the data analyzed is included on a disk packaged with the book
— Drives home the limits of forecasting through realistic examples in which not everything works perfectly

Table of contents:

1. Introduction to Forecasting: Applications, Methods, Books, Journals, and Software

2. The Linear Regression Model

3. Six Considerations Basic to Successful Forecasting

4. Statistical Graphics for Forecasting

5. Modeling and Forecasting Trend

6. Modeling and Forecasting Seasonality

7. Characterizing Cycles

8. Modeling Cycles: MA, AR, and ARMA Models

9. Forecasting Cycles

10. Putting it All Together: A Forecasting Model with Trend, Seasonal, and Cyclical Components

11. Forecasting with Regression Models

12. Evaluating and Combining Forecasts

13. Unit Roots, Stochastic Trends, ARIMA Forecasting Models, and Smoothing

14. Volatility Measurement, Modeling and Forecasting

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