Forecasting An Essential Introduction 1st Edition by Jennifer Castle,Michael Clements,David Hendry ISBN 0300244665 978-0300244663

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Product details:

ISBN 10: 0300244665

ISBN 13: 978-0300244663 

Author: Jennifer Castle, Michael Clements, David Hendry

Concise, engaging, and highly intuitive—this accessible guide equips you with an understanding of all the basic principles of forecasting

Making accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, as F. A. Hayek noted when accepting his Nobel Prize in economics, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops. In this accessible and engaging guide, David Hendry, Michael Clements, and Jennifer Castle provide a concise and highly intuitive overview of the process and problems of forecasting. They explain forecasting concepts including how to evaluate forecasts, how to respond to forecast failures, and the challenges of forecasting accurately in a rapidly changing world.
 
Topics covered include: What is a forecast? How are forecasts judged? And how can forecast failure be avoided? Concepts are illustrated using real-world examples including  financial crises, the uncertainty of Brexit, and the Federal Reserve’s record on forecasting. This is an ideal introduction for university students studying forecasting, practitioners new to the field and for general readers interested in how economists forecast.

Table of contents:

1. What is a forecast?

2. A brief history of forecasting

3. Why are forecasts uncertain?

4. How do we judge forecasts?

5. How uncertain are our forecasts?

6. Are some real world events unpredictable?

7. Why do systematic forecast failures occur?

8. Can we avoid systematic forecast failures?

9. How do we automatically detect breaks?

10. Can we forecast breaks before they hit?

11. Can we improve forecasts during breaks?

12. Would more information be useful?

13. Can you trust economic forecasts?

14. Further reading

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