(EBOOK PDF)Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics 1st edition by George Evans 9781400824267 1400824265 full chapters

Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics 1st edition by George Evans – Ebook PDF Instant Download/Delivery: 9781400824267, 1400824265

Full download Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics 1st edition after payment

Product details:

• ISBN 10:1400824265 

• ISBN 13:9781400824267

• Author:George Evans 

Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics
A crucial challenge for economists is figuring out how people interpret the world and form expectations that will likely influence their economic activity. Inflation, asset prices, exchange rates, investment, and consumption are just some of the economic variables that are largely explained by expectations. Here George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja bring new explanatory power to a variety of expectation formation models by focusing on the learning factor. Whereas the rational expectations paradigm offers the prevailing method to determining expectations, it assumes very theoretical knowledge on the part of economic actors. Evans and Honkapohja contribute to a growing body of research positing that households and firms learn by making forecasts using observed data, updating their forecast rules over time in response to errors. This book is the first systematic development of the new statistical learning approach. Depending on the particular economic structure, the economy may converge to a standard rational-expectations or a “rational bubble” solution, or exhibit persistent learning dynamics. The learning approach also provides tools to assess the importance of new models with expectational indeterminacy, in which expectations are an independent cause of macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, learning dynamics provide a theory for the evolution of expectations and selection between alternative equilibria, with implications for business cycles, asset price volatility, and policy. This book provides an authoritative treatment of this emerging field, developing the analytical techniques in detail and using them to synthesize and extend existing research.
                                                                                                                                                 

Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics 1st Table of contents:

 Part I: View of the Landscape
1 Expectations and the Learning Approach
1.1 Expectations in Macroeconomics
1.2 Two Examples
1.3 Classical Models of Expectation Formation
1.4 Learning: The New View of Expectations
1.5 Statistical Approach to Learning
1.6 A General Framework
1.7 Overview of the Book
2 Introduction to the Techniques
2.1 Introduction
2.2 The Cobweb Model
2.3 Econometric Learning
2.4 Expectational Stability
2.5 Rational vs. Reasonable Learning
2.6 Recursive Least Squares
2.7 Convergence of Stochastic Recursive Algorithms
2.8 Application to the Cobweb Model
2.9 The E-Stability Principle
2.10 Discussion of the Literature
3 Variations on a Theme
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Heterogeneous Expectations
3.3 Learning with Constant Gain
3.4 Learning in Nonstochastic Models
3.5 Stochastic Gradient Learning
3.6 Learning with Misspecification
4 Applications
4.1 Introduction
4.2 The Overlapping Generations Model
4.3 A Linear Stochastic Macroeconomic Model
4.4 The Ramsey Model
4.5 The Diamond Growth Model
4.6 A Model with Increasing Social Returns
4.7 Other Models
4.8 Appendix
Part II: Mathematical Background and Tools
5 The Mathematical Background
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Difference Equations
5.3 Differential Equations
5.4 Linear Stochastic Processes
5.5 Markov Processes
5.6 Ito Processes
5.7 Appendix on Matrix Algebra
5.8 References for Mathematical Background
6 Tools: Stochastic Approximation
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Stochastic Recursive Algorithms
6.3 Convergence: The Basic Results
6.4 Convergence: Further Discussion
6.5 Instability Results
6.6 Expectational Stability
6.7 Global Convergence
7 Further Topics in Stochastic Approximation
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Algorithms for Nonstochastic Frameworks
7.3 The Case of Markovian State Dynamics
7.4 Convergence Results for Constant-Gain Algorithms
7.5 Gaussian Approximation for Cases of Decreasing Gain
7.6 Global Convergence on Compact Domains
7.7 Guide to the Technical Literature
Part III: Learning in Linear Models
8 Univariate Linear Models
8.1 Introduction
8.2 A Special Case
8.3 E-Stability and Least Squares Learning: MSV Solutions
8.4 E-Stability and Learning: The Full Class of Solutions
8.5 Extension 1: Lagged Endogenous Variables
8.6 Extension 2: Models with Time-t Dating
8.7 Conclusions
9 Further Topics in Linear Models
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Muth’s Inventory Model
9.3 Overparameterization in the Special Case
9.4 Extended Special Case
9.5 Linear Model with Two Forward Leads
9.6 Learning Explosive Solutions
9.7 Bubbles in Asset Prices
9.8 Heterogeneous Learning Rules
10 Multivariate Linear Models
10.1 Introduction
10.2 MSV Solutions and Learning
10.3 Models with Contemporaneous Expectations
10.4 Real Business Cycle Model
10.5 Irregular REE
10.6 Conclusions
10.7 Appendix 1: Linearizations
10.8 Appendix 2: Solution Techniques
Part IV: Learning in Nonlinear Models
11 Nonlinear Models: Steady States
11.1 Introduction
11.2 Equilibria under Perfect Foresight
11.3 Noisy Steady States
11.4 Adaptive Learning for Steady States
11.5 E-Stability and Learning
11.6 Applications
12 Cycles and Sunspot Equilibria
12.1 Introduction
12.2 Overview of Results
12.3 Deterministic Cycles
12.4 Noisy Cycles
12.5 Existence of Sunspot Equilibria
12.6 Learning SSEs
12.7 Global Analysis of Learning Dynamics
12.8 Conclusions
Part V: Further Topics
13 Misspecification and Learning
13.1 Learning in Misspecified Models
13.2 Misspecified Policy Learning
13.3 Conclusions
14 Persistent Learning Dynamics
14.1 Introduction
14.2 Constant-Gain Learning in the Cobweb Model
14.3 Increasing Social Returns and Endogenous Fluctuations
14.4 Sargent’s Inflation Model
14.5 Other Models with Persistent Dynamics
14.6 Conclusions
15 Extensions and Other Approaches
15.1 Models from Computational Intelligence
15.2 Alternative Gain Sequences
15.3 Nonparametric Learning
15.4 Eductive Learning
15.5 Calculation Equilibria
15.6 Adaptively Rational Expectations Equilibria
15.7 ExperimentalWork
15.8 Some Empirical Applications
16 Conclusions
Bibliography

People also search for Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics 1st:

    
learning and expectations in macroeconomics
    
role of expectations in macroeconomics
    
types of expectations in economics
    
role of expectations in economics
    
what are learning expectations

Tags:

Learning and Expectations,Expectations in Macroeconomics,George Evans