Scenarios in marketing from vision to decision 1st Edition by Gill Ringland, Laurie Young 9780470666265 0470666269

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ISBN 10: 0470666269
ISBN 13: 9780470666265
Author: Gill Ringland, Laurie Young 

To create “Scenarios in Marketing,” Gill Ringland and Laurie Young have called on the expertise of highly-respected contributors, and the lessons of leading-edge case studies:

THE CONTRIBUTORS

Lloyd Burdett, Associate Director, The Henley Centre Ltd. Andrew Curry, Director, The Henley Centre Ltd. Paul Fifield, The Paul Fifield Organisation Ltd. David Haigh, Chief Executive, Brand Finance Plc. Crawford Hollingworth, Founder and CEO, HeadlightVision Ltd. Don E. Schultz, President, Agora Inc. Merlin Stone, Director, WCL Tim Westall, Founding Partner, April Strategy Ltd. Neil Woodcock, Director, WCL

THE CASE STUDIES

Exploring assumptions at D2D Developing new business streams at Electrolux Scenarios in arts marketing Marketing strategy at Pfizer Using real environments to model the future Hathaway shirts Strategies for mobile commerce Telephone directories IT ‘Hardware’ Global personal product range extension European frozen food innovation Tesco Nestle Rowntree Courvoisier

Scenarios in marketing from vision to decision 1st Table of contents:

Contributors: In Alphabetical Order

Acknowledgments

ONE Introduction to Scenario Planning

SUMMARY

HOW CAN THIS BOOK HELP YOU?

Figure 1.1 The Marketers’ Toolkits

MODELS OF THE WORLD

How Can Marketers Get Better Models of the World?

WHAT IS A SCENARIO?

The Experimental and Theoretical Basis for Scenario Thinking

CASE STUDY 1.1 SCENARIOS TO EXPLORE ASSUMPTIONS AT D2D

Figure 1.2 Coral Reef and Deep Sea

What Works and What Doesn’t

The Theoretical Basis Behind Scenario Thinking

When Not to Use Scenarios

CREATIVITY AND DISCIPLINE

CASE STUDY 1.2 DEVELOPING NEW BUSINESS STREAMS AT ELECTROLUX

The Framework

The Scenarios

The Use of the Scenarios

The Results

NEW USES OF SCENARIOS

CASE STUDY 1.3 SCENARIOS IN ARTS MARKETING

Successful Outcome

CASE STUDY 1.4 USING SCENARIOS FOR MARKETING STRATEGY AT PFIZER

Organisational Context

The Scenario Process

Lessons Learned

CASE STUDY 1.5 USING REAL ENVIRONMENTS TO MODEL THE FUTURE

The Example of Rotterdam

Applying the Lessons Learned to Arnhem

Customer Scenarios for a Supermarket

CONCLUSION

REFERENCE

TWO Securing Future Revenue

SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION

ONE MORE TIME: WHAT IS MARKETING?

DIFFERENT MANIFESTATIONS OF MARKETING

The Intuitive Business Leader

The Bureaucratic Company

Figure 2.1 The Classic Functional Shape

Figure 2.2 Decentralised Approach

The Conglomerate or Decentralised Business

The Smaller Firm

Figure 2.3 The Single Marketer or SBU Structure

Professional Partnerships

Figure 2.4 Functional Shape in a Large Partnership

The Voluntary Sector and Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs)

The Marketing Supply Industry

CASE STUDY 2.1 HATHAWAY SHIRTS

THE EVOLUTION OF MARKETING IN AN ORGANISATION

THE “MARKETING CONCEPT”

SCENARIO PLANNING AND DIFFERENT MARKETING FUNCTIONS

Scenario Planning and Customer Research

Scenario Planning and Market Analysis

Scenario Planning and Marketing Strategy

Scenario Planning and New Product or Service Development

Scenario Planning in Brand Valuation

Scenario Planning in Communication Programmes

Scenario Planning in Action

CASE STUDY 2.2 STRATEGIES FOR MOBILE COMMERCE

The Process

Four Dilemmas

The Three Scenarios Deadlock (See Figure 2.6)

Digital Hub (See Figure 2.7)

New Wave (See Figure 2.8)

Wishful Thinking or ‘What if’

Looking Back

Successes and Failures

Lessons Learned

Figure 2.5 Mobile Commerce Markets

Figure 2.6 Deadlock Scenario

Figure 2.7 Digital Hub Scenario

CONCLUSION

Figure 2.8 New Wave Scenario

REFERENCE

THREE Marketing Strategy and Scenarios

SUMMARY

WHAT IS MARKETING STRATEGY?

Figure 3.1 Marketing Strategy (Scorpio)

Using the Scorpio Model of Marketing Strategy

HOW MARKETING STRATEGY CAN BUILD MARKET-BASED SCENARIOS OF THE FUTURE

The Customer

Figure 3.2 Strategy and Marketing

Industry or Market Thinking?

TABLE 3.1 INDUSTRY VERSUS MARKET LED BUSINESS DEFINITIONS

CASE STUDY 3.1 TELEPHONE DIRECTORIES

Segmentation and Targeting

Figure 3.3 Segmentation Example: IT “Hardware”

CASE STUDY 3.2 IT “HARDWARE”

HOW MARKETING STRATEGY CAN HELP YOU TO TURN SCENARIOS INTO REALITY

A WORD ON TIMING AND OTHER PRACTICAL ISSUES

Figure 3.4 Products and/or Markets

CONCLUSION

REFERENCE

FOUR Scenario Planning and Innovation

SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION

WHAT IS “INNOVATION”?

INNOVATION’S LIMITATIONS

THE BENEFITS OF SCENARIO PLANNING

Applications

HOW TO USE SCENARIO PLANNING TO IMPROVE INNOVATION

Overall Approach

Figure 4.1 Scenario Framework Building

GETTING INTO THE DETAIL

Scenario Preparation

Engaging the Client

Acquiring Trend Information

BOX 4.1 EXAMPLES OF NEWSPAPER STORIES

Story 1

Is the VeriChip the “Mark of the Beast?”

Story 2

Greek kids fatter than Brit kids

Story 3

Learning the lessons from America

TABLE 4.1 PROBABILITY WALL CHART

Making Sense of Trends

Bringing Trends Alive

TABLE 4.2 TEN COMMON UNCERTAINTIES

Scenario Creation

Scenario Interpretation (Idea Generation)

1 Improving the Customer Experience

Example (from a retail banking project)

TABLE 4.3 PICTURE PROMPT SHEET

2 Top-Down “Raison d’Être”

Example (from a healthcare project)

3 Bottom-Up Deconstruction

Example (from a snack project)

TABLE 4.4 EXAMPLE AGENDA: SCENARIO-BASED INNOVATION WORKSHOP

4 Ten-Point Action Plan

CASE STUDIES

CASE STUDY 4.1 GLOBAL PERSONAL PRODUCTS RANGE EXTENSION (2005)

CASE STUDY 4.2 GLOBAL SOFT-DRINKS INNOVATION AND MERGERS AND ACQUISITION (M&A) (2002)

It’s a Wonderful Life

Implications

Wall St Revisited

Implications

CASE STUDY 4.3 EUROPEAN FROZEN FOOD STRATEGIC INNOVATION (2000)

CASE STUDY 4.4 EUROPEAN HOLIDAY OPERATOR—STRATEGIC INNOVATION (2001)

CONCLUSION: TOP TIPS

DON’T…

DO…

REFERENCE

FIVE Scenarios in Customer Management

SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION

CUSTOMER MANAGEMENT AND DISTRIBUTION STRATEGY

THE CRM CONCEPT AND MODEL

MODELS OF CUSTOMER MANAGEMENT

1 CRM

2 One to One

3 Transparent Marketing

4 Personalised Communication of a Standard Offer

5 “Top vanilla”

6 Spot-sell

Within Managed Roster

Figure 5.1 The Simple Direct Intermediary Model

Managed by Agent

Pure Spot-spell

7 Channel Partnership

8 Classic Marketing Models

CREATING AN OPTIMUM STRATEGY USING CHANNEL AND CRM FACTORS

THE PARADOX OF TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS

Example: Utilities—Buying Energy under the New Supply Arrangements

Example: Buying a Telephone Call

Example: Short-term Savings

Example: Cross-selling in Financial Services

Example: Grocery Food Buying

CASE STUDY 5.1 TESCO

THE IMPACT OF WEB-BASED MARKETING

THE ROLE OF SCENARIOS IN DISTRIBUTION CRM AND CHANNEL STRATEGY

CONCLUSIONS

REFERENCE

SIX Scenarios in Brand Valuation and Brand Portfolio Strategy

SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION TO “BRAND” VALUATION

WHAT IS A “SCENARIO”?

WHAT DO WE MEAN BY “BRAND”?

THE APPROACH TO BRAND VALUATION

Some Definitions

Alternative Approaches

HOW DO WE DETERMINE ‘EXPECTED VALUES’?

1 Single Explicit Forecast

2 Multiple Explicit Forecast

3 Comprehensive Simulation Forecast

Existing Use to Existing Owner

CASE STUDY 6.1 NESTLÉ ROWNTREE

KEY ASSUMPTIONS, VARIABLES AND VALUE DRIVERS

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

THE ‘VALUER’S DILEMMA’

CASE STUDY 6.2 LASTMINUTE.COM

REDUCING FORECASTING COMPLEXITY

HYPOTHESISING BRAND SCENARIOS

CASE STUDY 6.3 COURVOISIER

CREATING SCENARIOS FOR BRANDS

SITUATIONS WHERE SCENARIO PLANNING CAN REDUCE BRAND RISK

Repositioning

Redesign

Rebranding

Relaunch

Reallocation of budgets

Revision of Price Point

CONCLUSION: FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS

REFERENCE

SEVEN Marketing Communication: Radical or Rational Change?

SUMMARY

BACKGROUND

It All Begins with Technology

The Challenge of Media Fragmentation

A Shift of Marketplace Power

THE ROAD AHEAD

THE CURRENT MARKETING COMMUNICATION PLANNING SCENARIO

1 Assumptions of the Current Marketing Communication Planning System

Figure 7.1 Hierarchy of Effects Model

Figure 7.2 Marketing Communication Organisational Structure

2 Embedded Systems Support Marketing Communication Assumptions

3 Change at Littleor No Cost to Consumers

4 An Assumption of Marketplace Maturity

DISRUPTIVE MARKETPLACE FACTORS MAY CHANGE THE CURRENT SCENARIO

1 A Clear Power Shift to the Consumer

2 Increasing Marketing and Communication Costs

3 Increasing Demands for Accountability

4 Above-the-line/Below-the-line Controversy

5 Rise of a Communication Planning Function

POTENTIAL MARKETING COMMUNICATION SCENARIOS

1 Managed Evolution

2 Increased Market Segmentation and Communication Customisation

Figure 7.3 Closed-Loop System

Figure 7.4 Horizontal Planning Process

3 Marketing Communication becomes a Dialogue between Buyer and Seller

Figure 7.5 The Relationship Framework

4 Marketing Communication to Facilitate Consumer Search

WHICH SCENARIO WILL PREVAIL?

WHAT ABOUT THE FUTURE?

CONCLUSION

EIGHT Scenarios for Fast-moving Sectors

SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION

Figure 8.1 Futures Techniques “Map”

DOING SOMETHING IS BETTER THAN DOING NOTHING

CONNECTING SCENARIOS TO ACTION

A Note of Caution

BOX 8.1 GETTING THE PROJECT OFF ON THE RIGHT FOOTING

BUILDING SCENARIOS

Identifying the Question

EXERCISE 8.1 Designing the Futures Question

Working with Trends and Drivers

Some Definitions

Figure 8.2 Assembling Drivers

BOX 8.2 DRIVERS, TRENDS AND MANIFESTATIONS

Figure 8.3 Drivers/Trends/Manifestations

EXERCISE 8.2 Thinking about the Expected Drivers of Change–and the Unexpected

The Scenarios for Obesity

Figure 8.4 The Weight Matrix

FROM SCENARIOS TO STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT

The Overall Implications

Looking at a Particular Scenario

WHEN TO USE EXISTING SCENARIO SETS

Figure 8.5 The Retail Experience

EXERCISE 8.3 Assessing Implications

SNAPSHOTS OF THE FUTURE: CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS

Using Qualitative Cross-Impact Analysis to Understand Tourism Innovation

TABLE 8.1 WHICH TECHNIQUE WHEN?

CONCLUSIONS

REFERENCE

NINE Conclusions

SUMMARY

Back Matter

APPENDIX ONE Building Scenarios

1 Project Startup

Figure A1.1 The Typical Overall Process

2 Diagnosis, or Identifying the Focal Issue

Interviews

Analysis

Synthesis

TABLE A1.1 SEVEN QUESTIONS

Desk Research

Feedback

3 Issues Workshops

4 Development of Scenarios

5 Investigation, Development and Evaluation of Strategic Options

Figure A1.2 The Scenario Matrix

APPENDIX TWO Marketing Tools and their Use with Scenarios

ANSOFF’S MATRIX

Application: Strategy Development

1 The Tool

Figure A2.1 The Ansoff Matrix

2 Constructing the Tool

Figure A2.2 Ansoff’s Original Format

3 Use of the Tool

4 Ansoff’s Matrix and Scenario Planning

ARR MODEL

Application: Relationship Marketing

1 The Model

Figure A2.3 The ARR Model

2 Constructing the Model

3 Use of the Model

4 Use of Scenarios with the Model

BOSTON MATRIX

Application: Analysis of Business Portfolios

1 The Tool

2 How to Construct It

Figure A2.4 The Boston Matrix

3 Use of the Tool

4 Use of Scenarios with the Tool

THE CULTURAL WEB

Application: Change Management

1 The Tool

Figure A2.5 Mapping Organisational Culture Using the Cultural Web

2 Constructing the Tool

3 Use of the Tool

4 Use of the Tool with Scenarios

DIRECTIONAL POLICY MATRIX

Application: Business Portfolio Tool

1 The Tool

Figure A2.6 The Directional Policy Matrix

TABLE A2.1 FACTORS OF MARKET ATTRACTIVENESS AND BUSINESS STRENGTH USED IN THE ORIGINAL GE MATRIX

2 Constructing the Matrix

3 Use of the Tool

4 Use of the Tool with Scenarios

Figure A2.7 The Experience Curve

EXPERIENCE CURVE

Application: New Service Development, Competitive Strategy

1 The Tool

2 Constructing the Tool

3 Use of the Tool

4 Use of the Tool with Scenarios

FEATURES ANALYSIS

Application: Service Design

Figure A2.8 The Experience Curve Applied to Outsourcing

Figure A2.9 Features Analysis

Model One (Figure A2.11)

Figure A2.10 The Goods/Services Spectrum

Figure A2.11 Models of Service 1

Model Two (Figure A2.12)

Model Three (Figure A2.13)

Figure A2.12 Models of Service 2

Figure A2.13 Models of Service 3

Model Four (Figure A2.14)

Use of the Tool with Scenarios

GAP MODEL

Application: Diagnosis of Client Service Issues, Development of Service Strategy

1 The Tool

Figure A2.14 Models of Service 4

Figure A2.15 The Gap Model

2 Constructing the Tool

3 Using the Tool

4 Using the Tool with Scenarios

HOFSTEDE’S CULTURAL DIMENSIONS FOR MANAGEMENT AND PLANNING

Application: International Marketing

1 The Tool

Figure A2.16 Individualism vs. Masculinity/Femininity

2 Constructing the Model

3 Use of the Model

4 Use of the Tool with Scenarios

Industry Maturity Curve

Application: Strategic Insight into Market Development

1 The Concept

Figure A2.17 The Phenomenon of Industry Maturity

2 Constructing the Curve

3 Use of the Concept

Figure A2.18 Case Study: Growth of Executive Search in the UK

4 Use of the Tool with Scenarios

TABLE A2.2 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS OF DIFFERENT PHASES OF INDUSTRY MATURITY

MARKETING MIX

Application: Planning and Influence

1 The Tool

Figure A2.19 The Marketing Mix for Services

2 Constructing the Tool

3 Use of the Tool

4 Use of the Tool with Scenarios

PORTER’S COMPETITIVE FORCES

Application: Market Analysis, Strategy Development

1 The Tool

Figure A2.20 Porter’s Forces of Competition

2 Constructing the Tool

3 Use of the Tool

4 Use of the Tool with Scenarios

RESEARCH

Application: Client, Competitor or Market Insight

1 The Tool

2 Constructing Research Projects

Figure A2.21 Importance Rating of IT Professional Services Firms’ Attributes

3 Use of the Tool

4 Use of the Tool with Scenarios

SWOT ANALYSIS

Application: Strategy Development

1 The Tool

Figure A2.22 SWOT Analysis

2 Constructing the Matrix

3 Use of the Tool

4 Use of the Tool with Scenarios

REFERENCE

APPENDIX THREE A History of Scenarios

AFTER THE SECOND WORLD WAR

Hermann Kahn—pioneer

Stanford Research Institute

SCENARIOS IN THE 1960s

Science and Prediction

Societal Futures Thinking

Figure A3.1 Five SRI Scenarios for the Future of American Society

Four SRI Scenarios

How the Scenarios were Used

SYSTEMS THINKING

The Hudson Institute

THE 1970s: CORPORATE PLANNING AND THE IMPACT OF THE 1973 OIL SHOCK

Corporate Planning

BOX A3.1 THE DELPHI TECHNIQUE

Planning at Shell

Scenarios after the Oil Shock

THE 1980s: THE WORLD ORDER BEGINS TO CHANGE

Development of Scenario Methodologies

Shell in the 1980s

THE 1990s: SCENARIOS WIDEN THEIR APPLICATION

Scenarios and Strategy

THE NEW MILLENNIUM

New Uses

REFERENCE

Index

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