Tipping Points Modelling Social Problems and Health 1st Edition by John Bissell, Camila Caiado, Sarah Curtis, Michael Goldstein, Brian Straughan ISBN 1118992016 9781118992012

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ISBN 10: 1118992016

ISBN 13: 9781118992012 

Author: John Bissell, Camila Caiado, Sarah Curtis, Michael Goldstein, Brian Straughan 

This book focuses on the modelling of contemporary health and social problems, especially those considered a major burden to communities, governments and taxpayers, such as smoking, alcoholism, drug use, and heart disease. Based on a series of papers presented at a recent conference hosted by the Leverhulme-funded Tipping Points project at the University of Durham, this book illustrates a broad range of modelling approaches. Such a diverse collection demonstrates that an interdisciplinary approach is essential to modelling tipping points in health and social problems, and the assessment of associated risk and resilience.

Table of contents:

PART I THE SMOKING EPIDEMIC

1. Generalised Compartmental Modelling of Health Epidemics
    1.1 Introduction
    1.2 Basic compartmental model of smoking dynamics
    1.3 Properties of the basic model
    1.4 Generalised model inclusive of multiple peer recruitment
    1.5 Bistability and ‘tipping points’ in the generalised model
    1.6 Summary and conclusions

2. Stochastic Modelling for Compartmental Systems Applied to Social Problems
    2.1 Introduction
    2.2 Global sensitivity analysis of deterministic models
    2.3 Sensitivity analysis of the generalised smoking model with peer influence
    2.4 Adding randomness to a deterministic model
    2.5 Sensitivity analysis of the stochastic analogue
    2.6 Conclusion

3. Women and Smoking in the North East of England
    3.1 Introduction
    3.2 Background
    3.3 Interrogating the figures
    3.4 Materialist and cultural or behavioural explanations
    3.5 The tobacco industry and the creation of social values
    3.6 Local voices
    3.7 Conclusions

PART II MATHEMATICAL MODELLING IN HEALTHCARE
4. Cardiac Surgery Performance Monitoring
 4.1 Introduction
 4.2 Statistical framework for monitoring
 4.3 A non-stationary process
 4.4 Dynamic modelling approaches
 4.5 Case example
 4.6 Discussion
 4.7 Conclusion

5. Heart Online Uncertainty and Stability Estimation
    5.1 Introduction
    5.2 Monitoring live complex systems
    5.3 The Bayes linear approach
    5.4 The Fantasia and Sudden Cardiac Death databases
    5.5 Exploring ECG datasets
    5.6 Assessing discrepancy
    5.7 Final remarks and conclusion

6. Stents, Blood Flow and Pregnancy
    6.1 Introduction
    6.2 Drug-eluting stents
    6.3 Modelling blood flow
    6.4 Modelling a capillary-fill medical diagnostic tool
    6.5 Summary and closing remarks

PART III TIPPING POINTS IN SOCIAL DYNAMICS
7. From Five Key Questions to a System Sociology Theory
 7.1 Introduction
 7.2 Complexity features
 7.3 Mathematical tools
 7.4 Black Swans from the interplay of different dynamics
 7.5 Validation of models
 7.6 Conclusions: towards a mathematical theory of social systems

8. Complexity in Spatial Dynamics: The Emergence of Homogeneity /Heterogeneity in Culture in Cities
    8.1 Introduction
    8.2 Modelling approach
    8.3 Description of the model
    8.4 Sensitivity analysis and results
    8.5 Discussion and conclusions

9. Cultural Evolution, Gene–Culture Coevolution, and Human Health
    9.1 Introduction
    9.2 Cultural evolution
    9.3 Epidemiological modelling of cultural change
    9.4 Gene–culture coevolution
    9.5 Conclusion

10. Conformity Bias and Catastrophic Social Change
     10.1 Introduction
     10.2 Three-population compartmental model
     10.3 Basic system excluding conformity bias
     10.4 Including conformity bias
     10.5 Comparative statics
     10.6 Summary
     10.7 Conclusions
     Appendix 10.A: Stability in the conformity bias model

PART IV THE RESILIENCE OF TIPPING POINTS
11. Psychological Perspectives on Risk and Resilience
 11.1 Introduction
 11.2 Forensic psychological risk assessments in prisons
 11.3 Suicide in prisons
 11.4 Biases in human decision making – forensic psychologists making risky decisions
 11.5 The Port of London Authority
 11.6 Final thoughts and reflections

12. Tipping Points and Uncertainty in Health and Healthcare Systems
     12.1 Introduction: ‘tipping points’ as ‘critical events’ in health systems
     12.2 Prediction, prevention and preparedness strategies for risk resilience in complex systems
     12.3 No such thing as a ‘never event’?
     12.4 Local versus large-scale responses to risk
     12.5 Conclusions: the ongoing agenda for research on tipping points in complex systems

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Tags: John Bissell, Camila Caiado, Sarah Curtis, Michael Goldstein, Brian Straughan, Tipping Points, Modelling, Social Problems, Health